As the days race towards the all-important Holiday Season, all eyes are glued to the US for any indications of how it will pan out.  The pronouncements and  reports of the National Retail Federation (NRF), the apex body of the US retail trade,  therefore, take on added significance.

“Retail sales in September were down 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted from August but up 4.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year,” NRF reported recently. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

“The pullback in September compared with August is possibly a reaction to increased fears over U.S.-China tensions,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “While uncertainty around trade policy and other issues has dampened consumer sentiment recently, consumers still have a lot going for them as evidenced by longer-term trends and factors like the tight labour market. September is a tricky month to measure because of seasonal factors like the end of summer and back-to-school spending, and this year’s early Labour Day may have moved up some spending into the last days of August.”

The organisation said that as of September, the three-month moving average was up 4.9% over the same period a year ago, compared with 4.1% in August. September’s results build on gains of 0.5 % month-over-month and 4.7%  year-over-year in August.

NRF bases its numbers on  data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which  said that overall September sales – including auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants – were down 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from August but up 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.