Nov 07, 2016

Gold Prices Rally to Four Week High on US Election Uncertainty

Uncertainty over the results of the US Presidential election, voting for which will be held on November 8, saw gold prices rally last week as investors hedged risk, the World Gold Council said in a statement. For the week ending November 4, gold prices rallied to cross the US$ 1,300 per troy ounce mark and reach their highest levels since early October, closing at US$ 1,305 levels, a little below the high of over US$ 1,307 registered earlier in the week.

Subsequent clarifications from the FBI that nothing new has been found and it stands by its earlier position of no criminal cases against Clinton, saw a minor drop on profit taking in early Monday trades in the East, though the decline was quickly arrested and prices rebounded to US$ 1,293 levels after a while.

The WGC believes that the upward trend will continue for some time, regardless of the outcome of the presidential and congressional elections, given the high uncertainty in the direction of policy and the possibility that the results may be contested.

The Council said in a statement that last week’s rally was a result of the surprise announcement by the FBI relating to Clinton’s email probe, which injected a new wave of uncertainty into the presidential election.

How much the election factor outweighs all other influences at present, became clear on Friday when even the release of relatively positive economic data related to job creation released by the US Labour Department and a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement indicating that a rate hike was likely in December had only a temporary and marginal impact on gold’s upward surge.

Most market analysts agree that a Trump victory at the US Presidential polls will lead to a sharp spike in gold, while a Clinton win will not result in any immediate downturn in prices in the near term.

WGC points out that the gold price posted its strongest two-week gain since the surprise result of the British referendum in late June, when gold also fulfilled its classic safe-haven role.

It added that rising nationalist movements and political uncertainty around the world, as well as the prevalence ineffective monetary policies, make gold a valuable hedge and key component to investment portfolios long term.