As the season picks up all eyes are on retail sales to see how the market will perform.

But before the season begins in earnest in the US, the country’s National Retail Federation (NRF) has put forward some projections.

The NRF expects sales in November and December -- excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales -- to increase to US$ 655.8 billion, thus marking a growth of 3.6 per cent. This, the organisation says, is “significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since recovery began in 2009”. Holiday sales in 2015 increased 3.2 per cent over the previous year. 

 NRF’s forecast for non-store sales puts the figure at US$ 117 billion; and postulates an increase between 7 and 10 per cent.

“All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This year hasn’t been perfect, starting with a long summer and unseasonably warm fall, but our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and industry expectations.”

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz commented: “Consumers have seen steady job and income gains throughout the year, resulting in continued confidence and the greater use of credit, which bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season.” 

Kleinhenz added: “Increased geopolitical uncertainty, the presidential election outcome and unseasonably warm weather are the main issues at play with the greatest potential to shake consumer confidence and impact shopping patterns.”